The 2024 census data shows that Tunisia has entered a phase of "quiet growth"; now is the ideal time to invest in this demographic window and transform it into inclusive development.
The 2024 Tunisian Population Census
1. Final Announced Results
- Total Population: 11,972,169 inhabitants (+9% compared to the 2014 census).
- Number of Households: 3,472,188 households.
- Average Household Size: 3.45 persons.
- Number of Occupied Dwellings: 3.44 million, with 19% vacant housing.
- Electricity Network Connection Rate: 97–98%.
- Drinking Water Network Connection: 86–87%.
2. Digital Census Methodology
The census was conducted for the first time entirely digitally; 9,000 agents used tablets and a field application. The operation ran from November 6 to December 31, 2024. This enabled real-time data transmission, improved accuracy, and the release of preliminary results in February 2025. Detailed tables will be published in September 2025.
3. Importance of the Census
- Planning schools, hospitals, and housing on realistic bases.
- Fair distribution of resources and regional budgets.
- Delimitation of electoral constituencies and accurate population representation.
- Attracting investors through reliable market data.
4. Key Findings
- Moderate growth (0.8% per year) reflecting declining fertility and brain drain emigration.
- 70% urban population => increased pressure on urban infrastructure.
- Aging population: 11.4% of the population >= 65 years, which increases healthcare costs.
- Persistent regional disparity: One-third of Tunisians reside in Greater Tunis, while desert governorates have fewer than 200,000 inhabitants each.
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5. Direct Economic Impact
| Area | How does it benefit from census data? |
|---|---|
| Employment | Estimating workforce size and developing training programs anticipating demand. |
| Investment | Directing projects to governorates with high density or development gaps. |
| Public Finance | Distributing infrastructure and services expenditure according to population size. |
| Social Protection | Forecasting pension and insurance fund burdens with the increasing elderly population. |
6. Tunisia in the Regional and Global Context
6.1 Population Comparison (millions of inhabitants, 2024)
6.2 Percentage of Population >= 65 Years
Notes on the comparison:
- Tunisia is smaller than Algeria (46.8M) and Morocco (36.8M) but larger than Libya (7.4M).
- The percentage of elderly people in Tunisia (11.4%) is higher than in Morocco and Algeria, but much lower than France (21%) and Italy (24%).
- Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia show a large young population segment and high expatriate percentage, while Europe faces deep aging and zero growth.
6.3 Global Trends
The world population reached 8.2 billion inhabitants in 2024 and is expected to peak at 10.3 billion around 2080, with growth slowing in most regions except sub-Saharan Africa. Tunisia belongs to the group of countries with near-complete demographic transition (fertility ≈ 2.1, moderate growth, medium aging).
7. Conclusion and Recommendations
- The demographic opportunity window is still open, but is narrowing with age; quality jobs must be created to retain young people.
- Interior development is a necessity to reduce internal migration and coastal density.
- Strengthening family policies could balance population aging and ensure workforce renewal.
- Investment in rural infrastructure (water, sanitation, transport) will improve quality of life and reduce regional imbalances.
- Digital census data provides a golden reference for tracking impact and adjusting policies by 2030.
References
In conclusion, the 2024 census reveals that Tunisia has entered a phase of "quiet growth." The challenge now is to transform this phase into a sustainable development success story.